We and the Changing World Order

3 m.   |  2022-12-22

Why did Azerbaijan close the Lachin Corridor?

S trange as it may sound, now is the most opportune moment to represent the essence of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue to the international community. We failed to legitimize the results and significance of the first war, as a consequence of which we got a war in 2016 and in 2020. Moreover, we were actually alone against the whole world during the 2020 war. Almost all conflicts in history are resolved if not immediately, then at the earliest opportunity. The emotional layer of the issue is exhausted in case of freezing and preserving it, and the fact of “occupation of the territory by the aggressor” remains on the papers. Among the 3 main negotiation approaches (self-determination of nations, territorial integrity and non-use of force) proposed by the Co-Chairmanship and adopted by the conflicting countries, at least two has been violated by Azerbaijan. According to the latter, it has restored its territorial integrity by using force. Thus, the Armenian side has nothing left but to consistently and very quickly address the goals and motivations of Azerbaijan to all international parties, within the context of the implementation of the Nagorno-Karabakh depopulation policy, based on the implementation of the remedial secession thesis. 

Without questioning in anyway the issue of Artsakh Armenians realizing the most important right to live in their own land, we must also admit that this conflict both before and now is not only between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The world order is collapsing, but the superpowers, which developed that order, are not. The collapse of the world order does not yet mean the collapse of the state, but the development of the new order, which will take time.

The closure of the Lachin Corridor should be viewed in the following context:

  1. Azerbaijan, as well as us, does not know what the future world order will be, and is trying to make most of it.
  2. In such conflicts, time works against the winning side with the help of weapons and becomes a disaster in the final rocking. Success begins to dull the vigilance and preclude compromise.
  3. It is not excluded, that as a result of the world order collapse, military clashes will begin not only in the South Caucasus but beyond its borders, expanding the list of participants. It is necessary not only for us, but also for Azerbaijan not to be trampled.

As for Armenia, at least the political elite must not pay tribute to emotions and carry out the following steps, even under a barrage of swearing:

  1. Mobilize the country’s both intellectual, human and defense resources in all possible and impossible ways.
  2. Not to talk about issues, they do not have proper information about.
  3. Present to the public what this conflict is about (unfortunately, the vast majority of the society does not know the answer to this question). What do the international community, our allies and non-allies expect from us? 
  4. Constantly explain to the public that our opponent(s) are not stupid. They may not be of the philosophical caste, but they have defeated us and they are confident in their abilities at this moment.
  5. Our problems must be solved only by us and nobody else but us, it has always been as such, contrary to our preconceptions.